How 3 Ball Betting Works
In the first two rounds of a PGA Tour event, players compete in threesomes. Sports betting sites use these official pairings to create 3-ball betting markets, setting moneyline odds for each player to win the group on that day.
Because a player must beat two other competitors, you will nearly always receive plus-money odds (e.g., +140, +190, +260) on all three golfers.
Example Scenario:
Imagine a first-round group at The Players Championship:
- Scottie Scheffler: +140
- Xander Schauffele: +180
- Viktor Hovland: +250
If you bet $20 on Hovland and he shoots a 69, while Scheffler scores 71 and Schauffele 72, your bet wins. The total payout would be $70 ($50 in winnings plus your original $20 stake).
The Critical Role of Dead Heat Rules
The most important concept in 3-ball betting is the “dead heat,” which occurs when two or more players tie for the lowest score in the group. This does not result in a simple loss. Instead, sportsbooks apply specific dead heat rules.
Your original stake is divided by the number of players who tied. This new, smaller stake is paid out at the original odds while the remainder of the wager is lost.
Dead Heat Payout Example:
- You bet $30 on a player at +200 odds.
- Your player shoots a 70, tying with one other player for the best score.
- A tie occurred between two players, so your $30 stake is divided by two.
- One half of your stake ($15) wins and pays out at the original +200 odds, returning $45 ($30 profit + $15 stake).
- The other half of your stake ($15) is lost.
- Your total profit on the bet is $15 ($45 payout – $30 original bet).
This rule is vital, as data suggests ties occur in roughly 10% of single-round matchups.
3-Ball vs. 2-Ball Golf Betting
After the tournament cut, players compete in pairs, leading to 2-ball golf betting. Here is how they compare.
| Aspect | 3-Ball Betting | 2-Ball Betting |
| Sportsbook Margin | Higher (around 11%) | Lower (around 4.7%) |
| Typical Odds | All players have plus-money odds | Players are around -110 each |
| Tie Frequency | Higher | Lower |
| Payout Potential | Higher on a single bet | Lower on a single bet |
The sportsbook’s built-in advantage (margin) is higher in 3-ball markets. However, the plus-money odds can offer better returns if you have a strong read on a specific group.
Advanced Strategy for Finding an Edge
Success requires a focused approach that differs from picking an overall tournament winner.
Prioritize Recent Form Over Rankings
World rankings are a guide, but a player’s performance over the last few weeks is a better indicator for a single round. A top-ranked player struggling with their putting can easily lose to a less-heralded player who is currently in peak form. Review recent tournament results and round-by-round scores.
Analyze Course Fit and Player Statistics
Look for specific statistical mismatches. If the course demands sharp iron play, a player with elite Strokes Gained: Approach stats has a clear advantage over two weaker iron players. For windy, coastal courses, players with a low ball flight and strong scrambling skills often outperform those who rely on high, towering shots.
The Tee Time Advantage: Weather and Course Conditions
Check the weather forecast for your group’s specific tee time. Players in a calm morning wave often have a significant advantage over those battling gusty afternoon winds. Early groups also play on smoother, less-worn greens. This is an edge many bettors ignore.
Pace of Play and Head-to-Head History
Some players consistently perform better when grouped with certain opponents. Data shows that player styles and even pace of play can affect performance. A fast, decisive player might become frustrated and rush their routine when grouped with two notoriously slow players, leading to unforced errors.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Betting Favorites Blindly: The highest-ranked player does not always win the daily matchup. Their odds often reflect their name more than their immediate form or course fit.
- Ignoring Weather Impact: A forecast for high winds in the afternoon should make you reconsider backing a player with a late tee time who struggles in those conditions.
- Forgetting Dead Heat Probability: A tie can turn a winning bet into a small profit or even a slight loss. Always factor this possibility into your decision.
My Final Take on 3 Ball Betting in Golf
After analyzing thousands of 3-ball markets, the most significant edges are found where casual bettors are not looking. Focus on round-specific data. Some golfers are notoriously strong starters who fade on weekends. These players are often undervalued in Thursday or Friday 3-balls, making them poor tournament bets but excellent single-round wagers.
The key insight is that 3-ball betting rewards a different skill set than predicting a tournament champion. Your goal is not to find the best golfer but to find the player with the right combination of current form, course fit, and mental toughness to beat just two other people on one specific day.
References
For player statistics: PGA Tour Player Statistics
