In sports betting, the +1.5 is a type of point spread, often called a run line in baseball, a puck line in hockey, or a goal line/Asian handicap in soccer.
When you bet on a team at +1.5, you are giving that team a virtual head start of 1.5 runs, goals, or points before the event begins.
For your +1.5 bet to be successful, one of two outcomes must occur:
- Your selected team wins the game outright.
- Your team loses the game by exactly one run/goal.
If the team you bet on loses by two or more, your wager is lost. This type of bet is exclusively available for the underdog: the team oddsmakers believe is more likely to lose. The +1.5 spread makes sports betting on the underdog more appealing by providing a cushion.
The Critical Math Behind the +1.5 Spread
The odds associated with a +1.5 bet look different from a typical near-even money spread. Because the +1.5 gives the underdog two distinct ways to win the bet (an outright victory or a one-run loss), the probability of the bet cashing is significantly higher. Consequently, the payout is lower.
You will often see odds in the range of -150 to -220 for a +1.5 bet. This negative number, known as the juice or vig, indicates how much you must risk to win $100. For instance, at -180 odds, a $180 wager is required to profit $100. This pricing reflects the high likelihood of the outcome.
A crucial part of your analysis is determining if the underdog’s chances of keeping the game close justify the premium price you have to pay.
Sport-Specific Analysis of the +1.5 Bet
The viability of a +1.5 wager is heavily dependent on the scoring patterns of the specific sport. In low-scoring games like baseball, hockey, and soccer, a single goal or run is often the margin of victory, making the +1.5 spread a powerful tool for predicting outcomes.
Baseball: The +1.5 Run Line
In Major League Baseball, the +1.5 run line is a foundational bet. A single run decides a significant portion of games. Data analysis from recent MLB seasons consistently shows that approximately 28-29% of all games end with a one-run margin. This statistic is the bedrock of run-line betting.
When to Consider a +1.5 Run Line Bet:
- Strong Pitching Matchup: When two high-caliber starting pitchers are on the mound, a low-scoring affair is more probable, increasing the likelihood of a one-run game.
- Elite Bullpens: A team with a dominant bullpen is more likely to keep a game close, even if trailing, or to protect a small lead. Analyze a bullpen’s recent performance and ERA.
- Low Game Totals: When sportsbooks set the total runs for a game at a low number (e.g., 7 or below), they anticipate a tight contest. In these scenarios, the 1.5 runs of insurance are more valuable. According to analysis from SportsBettingDime, MLB underdogs receiving +1.5 runs cover the spread between 56% and 61% of the time, a compelling long-term trend.
Hockey: The +1.5 Puck Line
Similar to baseball, hockey is a sport where many games are tightly contested. The +1.5 puck line offers a safety net, particularly because of a unique strategic element: the empty net goal.
A team trailing by one goal in the final minutes will often pull their goalie for an extra attacker. This can lead to them scoring and tying the game or the leading team scoring an easy empty-netter to win by two.
A +1.5 bet on the underdog wins if they lose by one but is vulnerable to this late-game variance. However, a significant number of NHL games are decided by a single goal.
If a game goes to overtime, the +1.5 bet on the underdog is an automatic winner, as NHL overtime periods end on the first goal, making a two-goal margin of victory impossible.
Soccer: The +1.5 Goal Line (Asian Handicap)
In soccer betting, a +1.5 goal line operates under the same principle. Given the low-scoring nature of the sport, winning by a margin of two or more goals is a substantial achievement.
According to Footy Stats, 1-0 result is the single most common outcome in soccer, occurring in nearly 20% of matches. When combined with other one-goal margin victories (2-1, 3-2, etc.), the value of a +1.5 handicap becomes clear.
Strategic Considerations for +1.5 Soccer Bets:
- Defensive Teams: A team known for a strong, organized defense is a prime candidate for a +1.5 bet, even against a superior opponent. Their tactical approach is often to keep the score close.
- Key Player Absences: If a heavily favored team is missing its primary goal scorer, its ability to win by a large margin may be compromised.
- Home vs. Away Form: Note how a team performs on the road. Many clubs adopt a more conservative, defensive strategy away from home, which can lead to closer scorelines.
Live Betting and the +1.5 Spread
The value of a +1.5 spread shifts dynamically once a game is in progress. Engaging with these bets through live wagering presents distinct opportunities.
If the pre-game underdog scores the first goal, their live +1.5 odds will shorten dramatically, offering little value.
On the other hand, if the favorite takes an early 1-0 lead, the underdog’s live +1.5 spread can become a valuable play.
The probability of them still covering (by either tying the game, winning, or not conceding another goal) may be higher than the new, more favorable live odds suggest. This requires a quick analysis of game flow and remaining time.
The Strategic Decision: +1.5 Spread vs. Moneyline
Choosing between betting an underdog at +1.5 or taking their longer moneyline odds for an outright win is a central strategic question.
| Betting the 1.5 Spread | Betting the Moneyline |
| Greatly increases the probability of winning your bet | Offers a significantly larger payout for the same risk |
| Provides a cushion against a narrow loss | Capitalizes on an outright upset victory |
| Requires you to pay a premium price (high juice) | Lower probability of winning: the team must win |
| Lower payout means less return on your investment per bet | No cushion for a close loss |
The choice depends on your confidence level and risk tolerance. If your analysis suggests an underdog has a strong chance to win the game, the moneyline offers better value.
If you believe the underdog will be competitive and keep the game close but may not pull off the upset, the +1.5 spread is the more logical wager.
An Insider’s Perspective on +1.5 Betting
Many bettors are drawn to the high win rate of the +1.5 spread, but professionals understand that success hinges on price discipline.
It is easy to win a majority of these bets and still lose money over the long term if you are consistently paying too high a price (e.g., -200 or more). The key is not simply to identify an underdog that can keep it close but to find instances where the market has underpriced the risk to the favorite.
This often occurs when public perception heavily favors a popular team, inflating the moneyline and creating a situation where the corresponding +1.5 price becomes more reasonable.
Successful +1.5 betting requires looking beyond the simple win/loss record and analyzing advanced metrics like a baseball team’s performance with runners in scoring position or a hockey team’s special teams efficiency to find value that the broader market may have missed.
For further reading, consider:
- Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong: A foundational text on understanding value and probability in sports wagering.
- FanGraphs (Baseball) & Natural Stat Trick (Hockey): Websites offering advanced statistics that can provide a deeper analytical edge.
